3 Observations on Russia-Ukraine war

Disclaimer

These are notes on what I see, not a call for any action or any criticism. For criticism I should have had an access to people who made these decision. In this situation of war, nothing can change opinions of people involved into conflict. So, imagine that this is transcript of what I see.

Propaganda in Russia

Russian propaganda quite efficient, not because TV people very professional or effective, but rather because they stay on the message. I see so many logical inconsistencies (many of the so pathological), but it does not matter. Every statement or “fact” or “what-aboutism” considered without context or connection to any other fact. Basically there is no value system, not logic system, no decision system, only constant flood of stories about “why we, Russians are good and everyone else bad”. Simple, unprofessional, but with very good understanding of the regular Russian people needs.

1. Propaganda is calling for war (currently they consider what happening “not a war”)
2. Propaganda states that we already at war with NATO (what I told about connection between messaged? It does not matter, there is no logical consistency, in previous point they say it is not a war, in next sentence they say it is war)
3. Propaganda continues forming an opinion that if you against Russia War in Ukraine, you are Nazi (again, disregard logic, National Socialists politically does not exist in Ukraine, but it does not matter)
4. Propaganda makes Russians hate Ukrainians, but what they achieve is that majority in Russia starts hate everyone (Free For All mode in Quake)
5. Propaganda promotes idea that soft Europe and US are so scared about prices and inflation that they will sell Ukraine very soon and Russia will win

Response of the Free World

In first 50 days of the war, Europe and US reacted with economic sanctions, been quite cautious about delivering weapon and trying to intervene. Now, they basically say that all peace talk went nowhere. EU and US speakers stated recently that there is only one solution: military solution.

Translation: EU and US are willing to destroy Russian Army in Ukraine (with military support)

One more thing, no one in the West believes Russian Government. Even if Russia will sign some paper with some words, EU and US governments will consider its as a paper, not an agreement, until Kremlin is held by people who started war (ideologically, not physically, you can change one for another, but if ideas are the same, it changes nothing).

Translation: isolation of Russia will be continuous, Iraq & Iran style. War will became more brutal. It is only beginning.

What is next?

Only one person can stop the war. Only one person can make it worst. We know that person name. In order to make sense of “What is next?” we have to go inside head of that person. But it is impossible. So we can only imagine what is going in his head. I believe in the following principles while talking about “reading the mind” of that person.

1. He has no strategy about anything, everything he does is reaction.
2. He has inaccurate information on what is happening on the ground. All channels of information are collapsed during last 20 years.
3. He has disturbed world view where he has no-one to trust, everyone is lying or trying to gain some power or wealth. Meaning: no humanitarian reasoning involved into consideration.
4. He sees the West as weak decadent society that can be manipulated and scared.

Base on these principles I can say what is next:

1. Goal is to destroy Ukraine as a state
2. Strategy does not exists, just operative planning, for 2-4 weeks ahead
3. War can be stopped only by military measures, complete collapse of Ukrainian or Russian army.
4. That conflict will continue for many decades, until one of the form of ruling is prevail, either democracy or authoritarian kleptocracy. They will not co exists on the boarder.

So, lets see how reality will present itself.